Prediction market statistics, from scored data

Did OVERROUND’s top-ranked wallets beat the prices they paid?

Across the 8,155 wallet-category records the board shows calibration for, trades in the 20–80 cent range resolve about 3.0 points better than the price paid. These are the top-ranked wallets, measured on the same trades they were ranked on, not the average trader, and not Polymarket prices at large. The full distribution, stated price versus resolved frequency:

Pooled: 12,028,089 scored trades from top-ranked wallets state 55.9% on average and resolve 58.1% (+2.3 points); in the 20–80 cent mid-range, 6,470,258 trades state 50.2% and resolve 53.2% (+3.0 points). Gaps are computed before rounding, so a gap can differ by 0.1 from the difference of the two rounded columns. Source: OVERROUND scored fills, verification gate passing, 2026-09-26.

These wallets were ranked on how these same trades resolved, so part of the gap comes from choosing them on those results, and the table cannot show how they did on later events. Results on later events are in the out-of-sample section below, and there the board’s top decile at each date went on to negative forward excess, with intervals entirely below zero, in two of the nine windows.

Does profit measure skill?

Of the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets on Polymarket, 4 clear OVERROUND’s public evidence floor. Among those, the median skill-adjusted rank is outside the top 1,000. Ranking by profit and ranking by demonstrated accuracy answer different questions. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes. The profit list is Polymarket’s public leaderboard, read 2026-09-26; this page grades the cohort as a group and names none of them.

How accurate are OVERROUND’s own alerts?

Of the 1,122 positions OVERROUND’s alert feed has flagged, 1,003 have resolved. 624 resolved in the alerted direction and 379 resolved against it, a 62% rate on resolved positions, as of 2026-10-06. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 62.2% where the prices implied 60.2%, a difference of +2.0 points. The 95% interval, −0.6 to +4.7, includes zero. The ledger counts one row per alerted position as of the 2026-08-05 correction (corrections log); earlier figures on this page counted re-alert snapshots as separate rows. Every alerted position and its grade is public at overround.pro/receipts. Voided markets are excluded from the record; unresolved alerts are counted as sealed and publish in full at resolution. The ledger’s won, lost, voided and sealed counts add up to its total. These figures update live from the same public summary the receipts page shows.

Do the rankings hold up out of sample?

OVERROUND published pre-registered, rolling-origin backtests of its own rankings on 2026-07-15, committed before results existed to publishing either way. In six of nine quarterly windows, alert-eligible wallets (the wallets with at least 10 resolved events and a score above both the price baseline and their category’s average, before the alert watchlist’s limit of 25 per category) went on to beat the prices they paid by about 0.7 to 1.4 cents per share with confidence intervals clear of zero (largest window n = 2,236,857 wallet-events). In the weakest window they did not demonstrate forward edge, and the report leads with that. Those figures are for alert-eligible wallets at the prices they paid, before fees. In a separate pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up at the 5-minute price came out 0.21 cents a share below the price baseline on later events at the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill), before fees. Full tables, intervals, and limitations: overround.pro/research.

Coverage

As of 2026-10-05, the public board ranks 546,637 wallet-category records across 62 categories, computed nightly from public on-chain fills. Live counts: overround.pro/leaderboard.

Sources

• OVERROUND scored fills (primary dataset): public on-chain Polymarket activity graded per the methodology; the graded alert slice is public at /receipts with a JSON mirror. Continuously updated; the alert record and coverage blocks above read it live.
• Polymarket public leaderboard: polymarket.com/leaderboard, the all-time profit list behind the cohort line above. Accessed 2026-09-26.
• Polymarket public APIs: docs.polymarket.com, the documented public market and data endpoints used for external cross-checks. Accessed 2026-09-26.

Citing this page

• Cite as OVERROUND (overround.pro) with the page date. Numbers update as markets resolve; the date pins the snapshot you quoted.
• License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse and republish these statistics freely with attribution.
• Methodology behind every number: the methodology page (price-relative scoring, independence rules, exclusions, limitations).
• Questions or data requests: hello@overround.pro.