Prediction market statistics, from scored data
Numbers on this page are computed from public on-chain Polymarket activity scored by OVERROUND, cross-checked against external sources before publication, and kept current. Each statistic carries its source and date. Writers may quote any of it with attribution to OVERROUND (overround.pro). Last updated 2026-07-15.
Do top prediction-market traders beat the prices they pay?
Across the 7,361 wallet-category records the board shows calibration for, trades resolve about 3.6 points better than the price paid. These are the top-ranked wallets, not the average trader, and not Polymarket prices at large. The full distribution, stated price versus resolved frequency:
| stated (avg price paid) | resolved frequency | trades | gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4% | 2.9% | 2,408,464 | +0.5 |
| 14.2% | 15.9% | 674,903 | +1.8 |
| 24.4% | 27.3% | 554,337 | +2.9 |
| 34.5% | 37.0% | 541,796 | +2.5 |
| 44.5% | 47.9% | 507,782 | +3.4 |
| 54.3% | 58.6% | 545,156 | +4.3 |
| 64.5% | 69.5% | 553,145 | +5.0 |
| 74.6% | 78.2% | 555,463 | +3.6 |
| 84.8% | 88.1% | 681,794 | +3.3 |
| 97.2% | 98.0% | 2,343,008 | +0.8 |
Pooled: 9,365,848 scored trades from top-ranked wallets state 49.4% on average and resolve 51.3% (+1.9 points); in the 20–80 cent mid-range, 3,257,679 trades state 49.6% and resolve 53.2% (+3.6 points). Source: OVERROUND scored fills, verification gate passing, 2026-07-15.
Does profit measure skill? The all-time P&L top five, sized by evidence
Official all-time profit (Polymarket leaderboard API, fetched 2026-07-15) beside the number of independent resolved events behind it. Correlated legs in one event family count once.
| account | official all-time P&L | independent resolved events | per-share edge vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theo4 | $22.1M | 7 | too few events to score |
| swisstony | $20.2M | 110,870 | +2.0¢ per share |
| Fredi9999 | $16.6M | 29 | too few events to score |
| kch123 | $11.4M | 2,570 | +3.3¢ per share |
| RN1 | $11.0M | 68,398 | +3.8¢ per share |
Of the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets on Polymarket, 4 clear OVERROUND’s public evidence floor. Among those, the median skill-adjusted rank is outside the top 1,000. Ranking by profit and ranking by demonstrated accuracy answer different questions. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
How accurate are OVERROUND’s own alerts?
Of the 745 featured alerts OVERROUND has sent subscribers, 517 have resolved. 353 resolved in the alerted direction and 164 did not (68%). Every alert and its grade is public at overround.pro/receipts. Voided markets are excluded from the record; unresolved alerts are counted as sealed and publish in full at resolution. The ledger publishes its own arithmetic identity, so edits would be detectable. As of 2026-07-15.
Do the rankings hold up out of sample?
OVERROUND published pre-registered, rolling-origin backtests of its own rankings on 2026-07-15, committed before results existed to publishing either way. In six of nine quarterly windows, alert-eligible wallets went on to beat the prices they paid by about 0.7 to 1.4 cents per share with confidence intervals clear of zero (largest window n = 2,236,857 wallet-events). In the weakest window they did not demonstrate forward edge, and the report leads with that. Full tables, intervals, and limitations: overround.pro/research.
Coverage
The public board currently ranks 414,676 wallet-category records across 59 categories, computed nightly from public on-chain fills. Live counts: overround.pro/leaderboard. As of 2026-07-15.
Citing this page
- Cite as OVERROUND (overround.pro) with the page date. Numbers update as markets resolve; the date pins the snapshot you quoted.
- Methodology behind every number: the methodology page (price-relative scoring, independence rules, exclusions, limitations).
- Questions or data requests: hello@overround.pro.
Nothing on this site is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.