Price-relative scoring
Every fill is scored against the price actually paid. Calling a near-certainty right earns almost nothing, and being right against a contested price earns the full distance, so easy calls cannot pad a record.
INDEPENDENT PREDICTION-MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Separate skill from luck in prediction markets.
OVERROUND ranks public forecasters by skill-adjusted accuracy, so a hot streak can’t pass as a track record. You get an alert when a consistently accurate forecaster changes position. Use it as one research input on the venues you independently choose. OVERROUND does not recommend trades, execute them, or decide what is suitable or lawful for you.
- ✓ Free to browse, no account
- ✓ No positions, no funds held
- ✓ Cancel anytime
Skill Leaderboard LIVE · SPORTS
| # | Forecaster | Skill | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54 0x54a2…1d43 | +21.14 | 1813 |
| 2 | ma | 1895 | |
| 3 | ma | 230 | |
| 4 | ma | 3517 | |
| 5 | ma | 690 |
474,223
Forecaster rankings scored
60
Categories tracked
On-chain
Public Polymarket data
Daily
Board published from resolved events
Live figures from the public leaderboard API.
THE PROBLEM01 02 03
A raw win count tells you almost nothing.
Anyone can look sharp for a week. Consistent, well-calibrated accuracy across many independent, resolved events is the signal, and it’s buried in millions of public on-chain records. We do the separating.
Calibration over time
We track predicted vs. observed frequency across an entire history, so a single lucky window can't inflate a ranking.
Public & verifiable
Built entirely on public on-chain data. Every number traces back to a resolved event you can independently check.
HOW IT WORKS
Track. Detect. Alert.
From the wallets with the strongest verified historical records, straight to your inbox or Telegram.
STEP 01
Track the record
We continuously watch the forecasters that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category, the ones with a long, verified record of being right.
STEP 02
Detect the move
When a tracked forecaster opens or adds to a position, our on-chain reader picks it up within minutes of the move landing on-chain.
STEP 03
Alert you fast
You get a clean message: the market, the side, the entry price, and the size, with context on the forecaster's track record in that category.
WHAT YOU GET
Read the market’s top-ranked forecasters.
The leaderboard
Rank every tracked forecaster by skill-adjusted accuracy, filter by category, and open any wallet’s per-category record and current positions. Free to read; paid subscribers get every score, full calibration detail, and graded event history for the top of every category’s board.
- Skill score, sample size, and calibration in one view
- Category breakdowns from Politics to Sports to Crypto
- Every ranking traces to a verifiable resolved event
Skill Leaderboard PREVIEW · 30D
| # | Forecaster | Skill | Resolved | Cal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9c 0x9c4f..2a1b Politics | 0.94 | 412 | |
| 2 | 7a 0x7a3e..e920 Crypto | 0.91 | 287 | |
| 3 | 1d 0x1d88..04cf Sports | 0.90 | 356 | |
| 4 | b2 0xb2f0..7733 Iran | 0.89 | 198 | |
| 5 | 6e 0x6e51..aa10 Finance | 0.88 | 301 | |
| 6 | 3f 0x3fa9..51d2 Politics | 0.86 | 244 | |
| 7 | c0 0xc08d..9e4b Esports | 0.85 | 177 |
Calibration ledger · 0x9c4f..2a1bn = 412 resolved
predicted probability →
perfect calibration observed frequency
The calibration ledger
For any forecaster, see how their stated confidence lines up against what actually happened. Points on the diagonal mean a forecaster who says “70%” is right about 70% of the time, the gold standard of a reliable predictor.
It’s the most honest one-glance answer to “does this wallet’s record show consistent calibration?”
Conviction alerts
When a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, you hear about it on email and Telegram, typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain, so you can review it alongside your own research. No setup: alerts are on from the moment you subscribe.
✉ Email✈ TelegramMinutes from move to message
🐋 OVERROUND :: conviction alert
0x7c2e..91af · Politics
Will Republicans hold the House in the 2026 midterms?
Observed: YES @ entry 0.44 → now 0.56 ▲ · $2.1k (14 fills)
why: 3.2× this wallet's median size · 214 independent events in Politics · +8.4¢ per share vs market
⚠ price has run since entry; a copy pays ~0.56, not 0.44
🐋 OVERROUND :: conviction alert
0xb3d1..77c0 · Sports
Will the Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Observed: YES @ entry 0.24 · $1.6k (11 fills)
why: 2.4× this wallet's median size · 188 independent events in Sports · +5.1¢ per share vs market
🐋 OVERROUND :: conviction alert
0x1d88..04cf · Crypto
ETH above $5,000 on September 30?
Observed: YES @ entry 0.38 → now 0.43 ▲ · $1.2k (9 fills)
why: 1.9× this wallet's median size · 146 independent events in Crypto · +3.6¢ per share vs market
Representative examples · informational only · not a recommendation
METHODOLOGY
How we score accuracy
Every number on OVERROUND is derived from public on-chain data with a transparent, versioned method. There is no editorial judgement: the method is documented and versioned, with a small set of proprietary anti-gaming screens. Calibration is tracked separately from rank, so you can always see the working.
Read the full methodology →Out-of-time validation results are published on the research page, committed before the results were known.
01
Public data only
Positions and resolutions are read directly from on-chain Polymarket activity, with nothing self-reported.
02
Difficulty-weighted
Each resolved call is weighted by how contested the market was, so easy calls count for less than hard ones.
03
Proper scoring rule
Calibration uses a Brier-style proper scoring rule that rewards confidence which proves correct and penalizes confident misses, and it is tracked separately from the rank.
04
Sample-size aware
Rankings discount thin track records, so a short, lucky run can't reach the top of the board.
PRICING
Simple, honest pricing.
A high-scoring forecaster moves. Subscribers know within minutes. One subscription covers all of it, and the public board stays free, so you can check the record before you pay a dollar.
FROM THE GRADED RECORD661 alerts featured to subscribers to date, 347–210 on resolved markets. Grading is mechanical and losses stay on the page.
- 2026-08-06ITF Landisville: Carolyn Ansari vs Kylie Collinswon
- 2026-08-05ITF Landisville: Lizette Cabrera vs Fiona Crawleylost
- 2026-08-05National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Tabilowon
- 2026-08-02Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?lost
- 2026-08-01Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?won
FULL ACCESS$29/mo · founding rate
PRO
$19/month
Billed monthly at the founding rate. The price stays $19 for as long as your subscription stays active.
- ✓ Every skill score on the full leaderboard
- ✓ Calibration diagrams & graded event history on top-of-board wallets
- ✓ Conviction alerts on Telegram & email, within minutes
- ✓ Follow forecasters & build your watchlist
- ✓ Daily digest, sent even on quiet days
Cancel anytime · No funds held · Not investment advice
By subscribing you agree to the Terms and authorize recurring billing until you cancel.
FOUNDING RATELock in $19/month for as long as your subscription stays active. Early-subscriber pricing, grandfathered from the day you join.
Not ready to pay? Browse the live board free. You see each category’s #1 forecaster in full, with the other identities, skill scores, full ranking, and alerts saved for subscribers.
The Weekly Skill Report. Leaderboard changes, notable wallet moves, and every newly graded alert from the featured feed, the alerts subscribers receive. Wins and losses both, one email each Monday.
Free. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy.
FAQ
Questions, answered.
No. OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription. We surface historical accuracy and notify you when tracked wallets change position. We never tell you what to do, accept stakes, or hold funds. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
⚖
What OVERROUND is
OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription built on publicly available prediction-market data. We track and rank the historical accuracy of forecasters, publish a verifiable calibration ledger, and send alerts when tracked forecasters change position. We do not accept stakes, hold customer funds, custody cryptocurrency, or pay money to users. Nothing here is financial or investment advice, and past accuracy does not predict future outcomes. OVERROUND is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, or any trading venue.
Stop guessing who’s actually accurate.
Join at the founding rate and lock in $19/month for as long as you stay subscribed.