INDEPENDENT PREDICTION-MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Separate skill from luck in prediction markets.

OVERROUND ranks public forecasters by skill-adjusted accuracy, so a hot streak can’t pass as a track record. You get an alert when a consistently accurate forecaster changes position.

  • ✓ Free to browse, no account
  • ✓ No positions, no funds held
  • ✓ Cancel anytime
Skill Leaderboard LIVE · POLITICS
#ForecasterSkillResolved
1
f1
0xf1f0…58df
+23.53263
2
ma
3
ma
4
ma
5
ma
Live board · identities masked below #1overround.pro/leaderboard

Use it as one research input on the venues you independently choose. OVERROUND does not recommend trades, execute them, or decide what is suitable or lawful for you.

538,214
Forecaster rankings scored
60
Categories tracked
On-chain
Public Polymarket data
Daily
Board published from resolved events

Live figures from the public leaderboard API.

THE PROBLEM

A raw win count tells you almost nothing.

Anyone can look sharp for a week. Consistent, well-calibrated accuracy across many independent, resolved events is the signal, and it’s buried in millions of public on-chain records. We do the separating.

01

Price-relative scoring

Every fill is scored against the price actually paid. Calling a near-certainty right earns almost nothing, and being right against a contested price earns the full distance, so easy calls cannot pad a record.

02

Calibration over time

We track predicted vs. observed frequency across an entire history, so a single lucky window can't inflate a ranking.

03

Public & verifiable

Built entirely on public on-chain data. Every number traces back to a resolved event you can independently check.

HOW IT WORKS

Track. Detect. Alert.

From the wallets with the strongest verified historical records, straight to your inbox or Telegram.

STEP 01

Track the record

We continuously watch the forecasters that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category, the ones with a long, verified record of being right.

STEP 02

Detect the move

When a tracked forecaster opens or adds to a position, our on-chain reader typically picks it up within minutes of the move landing on-chain.

STEP 03

Alert you fast

You get a clean message: the market, the side, the entry price, and the size, with context on the forecaster's track record in that category.

WHAT YOU GET

Read the market’s top-ranked forecasters.

The leaderboard

The board ranks Polymarket wallets by skill-adjusted accuracy within each category, and any wallet’s page shows its current positions. Each category’s #1 is free with its score, calibration diagram and graded history in the category it leads; Pro adds every score, plus calibration and graded history for the top of every board.

  • Skill score, sample size, and calibration in one view
  • Category breakdowns from Politics to Sports to Crypto
  • Every ranking traces to a verifiable resolved event
Open the live leaderboard →
Skill Leaderboard LIVE · ESPORTS
#ForecasterSkillResolved
1
8a
0x8a92…8586
+17.04148
2
ma
3
ma
4
ma
5
ma
Live board · identities masked below #1overround.pro/leaderboard
Example diagram, not a real wallet
predicted probability →
perfect calibration observed frequency

The calibration ledger

For each category’s #1 (free) and the top of every board (Pro), see how a forecaster’s stated confidence lines up against what actually happened. Points on the diagonal mean a forecaster who says “70%” is right about 70% of the time.

One glance shows whether a wallet’s record is consistently calibrated.

Conviction alerts

When a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, you hear about it on email and Telegram, typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain, so you can review it alongside your own research. Email alerts start the moment you subscribe. For Telegram, press “connect telegram” on your feed page, then Start in Telegram.

✉ Email✈ TelegramMinutes from move to message
Tennisalerted 2026-09-25
Wallet bought Digvijay Pratap Singh · price at alert 65¢ · position about $1,900
Result won
Politicsalerted 2026-09-24
Wallet bought No · price at alert 38¢ · position about $1,400
Result lost
Tennisalerted 2026-09-23
Wallet bought Akira Santillan · price at alert 52¢ · position about $1,300
Result lost

The three newest alerts with a result, one per market, newest first, won or lost · full ledger on the receipts page · informational only · not a recommendation

METHODOLOGY

How we score accuracy

Every score on OVERROUND is computed from public on-chain data by a documented, versioned method, with a small set of proprietary anti-gaming screens. Nobody edits a score by hand. Calibration is tracked separately from rank.

Read the full methodology →

Out-of-time validation results are published on the research page, committed before the results were known.

01
Public data only

Positions and resolutions are read directly from on-chain Polymarket activity, with nothing self-reported.

02
Difficulty-weighted

Each resolved call is weighted by how contested the market was, so easy calls count for less than hard ones.

03
Proper scoring rule

Calibration uses a Brier-style proper scoring rule that rewards confidence which proves correct and penalizes confident misses, and it is tracked separately from the rank.

04
Sample-size aware

Rankings discount thin track records, so a short, lucky run can't reach the top of the board.

PRICING

Simple, honest pricing.

A high-scoring forecaster moves. Subscribers typically hear within minutes. One subscription covers all of it, and the public board stays free, so you can check the record before you pay a dollar.

FULL ACCESS
PRO
$19/month
$29/mo · founding rate

Billed monthly at the founding rate. The price stays $19 for as long as your subscription stays active.

If you leave this checkout unfinished, we email you one link to pick it up, and that email says how to opt out. Nothing else.

By subscribing you agree to the Terms and authorize recurring billing until you cancel.

  • ✓ Every skill score on the full leaderboard
  • ✓ Calibration diagrams & graded event history on top-of-board wallets
  • ✓ Conviction alerts on Telegram & email, typically within minutes
  • ✓ Follow forecasters & build your watchlist
  • ✓ Daily digest, sent even on quiet days
Cancel anytime · No funds held · Not investment advice
FROM THE GRADED RECORD1,049 positions flagged by the alert feed to date, 561 won and 334 lost on resolved markets. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 62.7% where the prices implied 60.2%, a difference of +2.5 points. The 95% interval, −0.3 to +5.4, includes zero. Grading is mechanical and losses stay on the page.
  • 2026-09-23M25 Yinchuan: Alexander Binda vs Yun Seong Chungwon
  • 2026-09-23M25 Yinchuan: Colin Sinclair vs Zijiang Yangwon
  • 2026-09-23Singapore Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Maja Chwalinskawon
  • 2026-09-23M25 Yinchuan: Reiya Komagata vs Aziz Dougazwon
  • 2026-09-23Korea Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs So-Hyun Parkwon
Every alerted position is graded in public →
FOUNDING RATELock in $19/month for as long as your subscription stays active. Early-subscriber pricing, grandfathered from the day you join.

Not ready to pay? Browse the live board free. You see each category’s #1 forecaster in full, with the other identities, skill scores, full ranking, and alerts saved for subscribers.

The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.

Free. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy.

FAQ

Questions, answered.

No. OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription. We surface historical accuracy and notify you when tracked wallets change position. We never tell you what to do, accept stakes, or hold funds. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

⚖

What OVERROUND is

OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription built on publicly available prediction-market data. We track and rank the historical accuracy of forecasters, publish a verifiable calibration ledger, and send alerts when tracked forecasters change position. We do not accept stakes, hold customer funds, custody cryptocurrency, or pay money to users. Nothing here is financial or investment advice, and past accuracy does not predict future outcomes. OVERROUND is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, or any trading venue.

Stop guessing who’s actually accurate.

Join at the founding rate and lock in $19/month for as long as you stay subscribed.

Open the free ledger