Know which wallets are skilled. Get told when they move.
OVERROUND ranks Polymarket traders by skill-adjusted edge per event, so a lucky streak or one oversized correlated bet can't masquerade as a track record. When a proven wallet opens a position, you hear about it within minutes.
New conviction positions from the wallets on this board, the moment they open. Drop your email to get on the list.
Edge, adjusted for luck and sample size
Most leaderboards rank by raw profit. That number rewards bet size and luck, and a single correlated position spread across many markets can look like a winning record. OVERROUND scores each wallet on the profit-per-share it earned, averaged across the distinct events it actually traded, then shrunk toward the category baseline when the sample is thin. A wallet earns its rank by being right repeatedly, across many independent events.
Per-event edge
Profit-per-share averaged over the distinct events a wallet traded, so size and correlation can't inflate it.
Shrinkage
Thin samples are pulled toward the category baseline, so ten lucky bets don't outrank a hundred disciplined ones.
Calibration
A Murphy decomposition shows whether a wallet's implied probabilities actually resolve true, telling sharp pricing apart from noise.
Track, detect, alert
- 1
Track
OVERROUND watches the wallets that have proven an edge in each category.
- 2
Detect
The moment one opens or adds to a position, the on-chain tail catches it, usually within ten minutes.
- 3
Alert
You get a Telegram message with the market, the side and entry price, the size, and a flag if the move is already deep in the money.
A sample alert
A representative example. Real alerts carry the live market link and the wallet's profile.
Get on the list
The board is public and live now. Drop your email to get the realtime alerts as they roll out.
New conviction positions from the wallets on this board, the moment they open. Drop your email to get on the list.