Price-relative scoring
Every fill is scored against the price actually paid. Calling a near-certainty right earns almost nothing, and being right against a contested price earns the full distance, so easy calls cannot pad a record.

OVERROUND ranks public forecasters by skill-adjusted accuracy, so a hot streak can’t pass as a track record. You get an alert when a consistently accurate forecaster changes position.
| # | Forecaster | Skill | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | f1 0xf1f0…58df | +23.53 | 263 |
| 2 | ma | ||
| 3 | ma | ||
| 4 | ma | ||
| 5 | ma |
Use it as one research input on the venues you independently choose. OVERROUND does not recommend trades, execute them, or decide what is suitable or lawful for you.
Live figures from the public leaderboard API.
Anyone can look sharp for a week. Consistent, well-calibrated accuracy across many independent, resolved events is the signal, and it’s buried in millions of public on-chain records. We do the separating.
Every fill is scored against the price actually paid. Calling a near-certainty right earns almost nothing, and being right against a contested price earns the full distance, so easy calls cannot pad a record.
We track predicted vs. observed frequency across an entire history, so a single lucky window can't inflate a ranking.
Built entirely on public on-chain data. Every number traces back to a resolved event you can independently check.
From the wallets with the strongest verified historical records, straight to your inbox or Telegram.
We continuously watch the forecasters that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category, the ones with a long, verified record of being right.
When a tracked forecaster opens or adds to a position, our on-chain reader typically picks it up within minutes of the move landing on-chain.
You get a clean message: the market, the side, the entry price, and the size, with context on the forecaster's track record in that category.
The board ranks Polymarket wallets by skill-adjusted accuracy within each category, and any wallet’s page shows its current positions. Each category’s #1 is free with its score, calibration diagram and graded history in the category it leads; Pro adds every score, plus calibration and graded history for the top of every board.
| # | Forecaster | Skill | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8a 0x8a92…8586 | +17.04 | 148 |
| 2 | ma | ||
| 3 | ma | ||
| 4 | ma | ||
| 5 | ma |
For each category’s #1 (free) and the top of every board (Pro), see how a forecaster’s stated confidence lines up against what actually happened. Points on the diagonal mean a forecaster who says “70%” is right about 70% of the time.
One glance shows whether a wallet’s record is consistently calibrated.
When a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, you hear about it on email and Telegram, typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain, so you can review it alongside your own research. Email alerts start the moment you subscribe. For Telegram, press “connect telegram” on your feed page, then Start in Telegram.
The three newest alerts with a result, one per market, newest first, won or lost · full ledger on the receipts page · informational only · not a recommendation
Every score on OVERROUND is computed from public on-chain data by a documented, versioned method, with a small set of proprietary anti-gaming screens. Nobody edits a score by hand. Calibration is tracked separately from rank.
Read the full methodology →Out-of-time validation results are published on the research page, committed before the results were known.
Positions and resolutions are read directly from on-chain Polymarket activity, with nothing self-reported.
Each resolved call is weighted by how contested the market was, so easy calls count for less than hard ones.
Calibration uses a Brier-style proper scoring rule that rewards confidence which proves correct and penalizes confident misses, and it is tracked separately from the rank.
Rankings discount thin track records, so a short, lucky run can't reach the top of the board.
A high-scoring forecaster moves. Subscribers typically hear within minutes. One subscription covers all of it, and the public board stays free, so you can check the record before you pay a dollar.
Billed monthly at the founding rate. The price stays $19 for as long as your subscription stays active.
If you leave this checkout unfinished, we email you one link to pick it up, and that email says how to opt out. Nothing else.
By subscribing you agree to the Terms and authorize recurring billing until you cancel.
Not ready to pay? Browse the live board free. You see each category’s #1 forecaster in full, with the other identities, skill scores, full ranking, and alerts saved for subscribers.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Free. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy.
No. OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription. We surface historical accuracy and notify you when tracked wallets change position. We never tell you what to do, accept stakes, or hold funds. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
From publicly available Polymarket activity. Scores and rankings are computed from on-chain trading history, and a wallet’s current open positions are read from Polymarket’s own public data API at page load. Every score traces back to a resolved event you can independently verify.
Categories are Polymarket’s own market tags, used as-is. Each event is assigned exactly one category, the most common tag across its related markets, so no position is ever counted on two boards. We don’t editorially merge tags into a hierarchy. Narrow categories are where repeatable skill is most visible, and re-bucketing would insert our judgment between you and the public data. When Polymarket retags markets, the set of boards can shift with the data. The names sometimes overlap, and the accounting never double-counts.
Yes. OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription built on public data, and reading it is available anywhere. We do not operate a market, accept stakes, hold funds, or route orders, and we do not determine where you are eligible to trade. Whether a particular venue is open to you is a question for that venue and your own advisers.
No. OVERROUND reads public Polymarket data. It never connects to your account, and you never link a wallet to use it. The subscription is the analysis, and you can read it without trading anywhere.
Typically within minutes. Our reader sweeps the chain around the clock, and a detected move usually reaches you on Telegram and email inside ten minutes of landing on-chain.
A handful on a typical day. Alerts fire only when a tracked wallet makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and a per-category cap keeps any single sport from flooding the feed. No qualifying moves means no alerts, and the daily digest arrives either way.
There is a real free tier. You can browse the top of the public board, open wallet pages, read the score, calibration diagram and graded history of each category's #1 (when its score is above zero) in the category it leads, read the full receipts ledger where every alerted position is graded in public, and run the free wallet checker on any address, three checks a day. Every other skill score, calibration diagram and graded history, the full rankings, and realtime alerts are the subscription.
Yes, one click, no lock-in. If you join at the founding rate, that price is grandfathered for as long as your subscription stays active.
Alerts turn on immediately for every qualifying move across the board, on email and Telegram once you connect it. Following wallets personalizes your feed page and adds a follow email on days the tracked wallets you follow make a qualifying move. You can cancel any time from the billing portal on your account page, in one click.
Never. We do not accept stakes, hold customer funds, or custody cryptocurrency. OVERROUND is purely an analytics and information product.
Email hello@overround.pro. It reaches the person who built the product, and it is the same address for billing questions, privacy requests, corrections, and delisting. A Contact link is in the footer of every page.
OVERROUND is an information and analytics subscription built on publicly available prediction-market data. We track and rank the historical accuracy of forecasters, publish a verifiable calibration ledger, and send alerts when tracked forecasters change position. We do not accept stakes, hold customer funds, custody cryptocurrency, or pay money to users. Nothing here is financial or investment advice, and past accuracy does not predict future outcomes. OVERROUND is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, or any trading venue.
Join at the founding rate and lock in $19/month for as long as you stay subscribed.