SKILL LEADERBOARD

Who is actually accurate

The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →

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	Forecaster			Evidence
1	0x54a2…1d43 ↗	1813	+21.14	0.91	18.9%	41.6%	$76,189
2		1895
3		230
4		3517
5		690

Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.

Category leaders, free to read

Each category’s top-ranked forecaster, with its public record. Scores are statistical estimates over independent resolved events; the full rankings behind each leader are the subscription.

Sports: #1 is 0x54a2…1d43 with 1,813 independent resolved events · +22.6¢ per share vs the market baseline · 44% hit rate, leading 270,661 ranked wallets.

Politics: #1 is 0xf1f0…58df with 302 independent resolved events · +23.5¢ per share vs the market baseline · 47% hit rate, leading 105,123 ranked wallets.

Crypto: #1 is 0xf1f0…58df with 33 independent resolved events · +18.7¢ per share vs the market baseline · 64% hit rate, leading 71,672 ranked wallets.

Finance: #1 is 0x2455…a70f with 85 independent resolved events · +17.6¢ per share vs the market baseline · 81% hit rate, leading 6,713 ranked wallets.

Iran: #1 is 0x7a61…af24 with 28 independent resolved events · +23.8¢ per share vs the market baseline · 71% hit rate, leading 3,536 ranked wallets.

Weather: #1 is 0xd73e…4b96 with 36 independent resolved events · +12.4¢ per share vs the market baseline · 56% hit rate, leading 2,096 ranked wallets.

Esports: #1 is 0x8541…a367 with 68 independent resolved events · +7.0¢ per share vs the market baseline · 51% hit rate, leading 1,836 ranked wallets.

Awards: #1 is 0xac16…4f44 with 34 independent resolved events · +15.2¢ per share vs the market baseline · 68% hit rate, leading 1,705 ranked wallets.

Business: #1 is 0x7a61…af24 with 40 independent resolved events · +11.8¢ per share vs the market baseline · 53% hit rate, leading 1,466 ranked wallets.

Movies: #1 is 0x3577…6eff with 39 independent resolved events · +31.7¢ per share vs the market baseline · 97% hit rate, leading 1,313 ranked wallets.

AI: #1 is 0x957f…99c8 with 37 independent resolved events · +15.9¢ per share vs the market baseline · 95% hit rate, leading 1,011 ranked wallets.

Trump: #1 is 0x9dc7…8c0a with 38 independent resolved events · +33.1¢ per share vs the market baseline · 63% hit rate, leading 870 ranked wallets.

Reading the board

The guide to the most accurate Polymarket traders walks through each category’s leader and why this ranking disagrees with profit leaderboards, and the win-rate guide shows from the graded wallet population why raw win percentages cannot rank anyone. For the official profit board itself, the Polymarket leaderboard guide reads its ranks and win rates against the prices behind them. Any wallet’s record can be tested against its own entry prices with the free checker.

All ranked categories

Sports: 270,661 ranked wallets.

Politics: 105,123 ranked wallets.

Crypto: 71,672 ranked wallets.

Finance: 6,713 ranked wallets.

Iran: 3,536 ranked wallets.

Weather: 2,096 ranked wallets.

Esports: 1,836 ranked wallets.

Awards: 1,705 ranked wallets.

Business: 1,466 ranked wallets.

Movies: 1,313 ranked wallets.

AI: 1,011 ranked wallets.

Trump: 870 ranked wallets.

Culture: 830 ranked wallets.

Music: 823 ranked wallets.

MrBeast: 738 ranked wallets.

Science: 690 ranked wallets.

strike: 616 ranked wallets.

Box Office: 543 ranked wallets.