OVERROUNDforecaster-calibration ledger · polymarket
Ranked by each wallet's empirical-Bayes-shrunk profit-per-share, averaged across the distinct events it traded, so one big correlated position can't masquerade as a track record. The board shows wallets with at least 20 independent events. EVENTS is that count; SHRINK is the shrinkage factor B (1 trusts the wallet's raw edge, near 0 collapses it toward the category baseline for thin samples). Click a wallet for its calibration diagram.
ALERTS
New conviction positions from the wallets on this board, the moment they open. Drop your email to get on the list.
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