Every featured alert, graded

Showing the 66 graded rows tagged 2026 FIFA World Cup. The counts above cover the whole ledger. View the full ledger

The ledger identity, checkable at a glance: 941 featured = 667 resolved (431 won, 236 lost) + 11 voided + 263 sealed. If those numbers ever disagree, something was edited; that is the point of publishing them together. A category can appear in this ledger without appearing on the leaderboard: alerts fire on live wallet moves, while the board lists only wallets whose records clear its public evidence floor of resolved events.

Unresolved alerts are sealed: each one is counted the moment it is featured, and its full row publishes when the market resolves, with the original detection date frozen. The sealed count above makes silent edits detectable, and the live stream itself is the subscription. Prices are the last trade at or before each horizon, from Polymarket’s public fills; dates carry day precision and position sizes are rounded. The date beside a grade is the market’s scheduled close date and is shown once it has passed; grades themselves settle on the market’s recorded outcome, independent of that date. BUY and SELL describe the tracked wallet’s own action at detection. A voided market is excluded from the record. Alert timing, gating, and grading are documented in the methodology; validation work is pre-registered on the research page; aggregate calibration and grading statistics are on the statistics page.