ALERTS

Polymarket wallet alerts from skill-graded forecasters

When a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, you hear about it on email and Telegram, typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain. Tracked means graded. The feed watches the wallets that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category.

See pricingRead the graded ledger
The two newest alerts with a result, one per market, won or lost · informational only · not a recommendation
Sportsalerted 2026-10-05
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Platense: O/U 3.5
Wallet bought Over · price at alert 56¢ · position about $1,500
Result won
Sportsalerted 2026-10-05
Italy vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5
Wallet bought Over · price at alert 87¢ · position about $1,500
Result won

How an alert happens

Graded wallets are tracked

The feed tracks the forecasters that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category, with records scored against the prices they actually paid.

A move clears the conviction gate

A move becomes an alert only at $1,000 or more and at a price between 10 and 90 cents. If the wallet has five or more positions in the past 120 days, the move must also be at least 1.5 times its median position. Routine small positions stay out of the feed.

Sent to email and Telegram

Typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain, plus a daily digest sent even on quiet days.

Whale trackers alert on trade size. This feed starts from the graded record. The method is described on the methodology page, and its pre-registered tests are published in full on the research page, including a run at the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price five or more minutes after each fill), where even the records that held up did not beat the price curve before fees. Any wallet’s record can be tested against its entry prices with the free wallet checker.

Every alerted position, graded in public

62%resolved in the alerted direction624 won and 379 lost, on 1,003 resolved.
+2.0 ptswon vs the win chance implied by the alert prices62.2% won vs 60.2% implied, on 1,003 resolved. 95% interval −0.6 to +4.7 pts, which includes zero.
+1.9 ptswon vs the win chance implied by the prices 5+ minutes after each alert62.8% won vs 60.9% implied, on 984 of 1,003 resolved. 95% interval −0.7 to +4.5 pts, which includes zero.
+2.0¢median 24h move toward the alerted sideFrom the alert price to the last trade at or before the 24-hour mark, over graded rows.

Both intervals account for positions that share a market, since those settle together.

1,123alerted positions on the ledger
  • 624 won
  • 379 lost
  • 21 voided
  • 99 sealed until resolution

Sealed rows count in the total from the moment they are flagged, and move to won, lost or voided when their market settles.

Every row, including the losses, is public on the receipts ledger.

CONVICTION ALERTS

Get the next conviction alert, typically within minutes

Pro sends conviction alerts on Telegram and email when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, typically within minutes. Each wallet and each category has a daily limit, and alerts held back by these limits go into the daily digest. Pro also opens every skill score on the full leaderboard. The receipts ledger stays free.

See Pro plansRead the graded ledger

Questions about the alerts

How are the tracked wallets chosen?
The feed tracks the forecasters that rank highest on skill-adjusted accuracy in each category: records scored against the prices actually paid, over resolved events, with small samples shrunk toward category baselines. Selection follows the scores, apart from a hand-kept list of wallets muted as market makers. The method is described on the methodology page, and its pre-registered tests are published in full on the research page, including a run at the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price five or more minutes after each fill), where even the records that held up did not beat the price curve before fees.
What does an alert contain?
The market, the side, the entry price, the position size, and context on the wallet's graded track record in that category. Alerts describe what a tracked forecaster did; they are observations for your own research, never a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold.
How fast do alerts arrive?
Typically within minutes of the move landing on-chain. The on-chain reader picks up a tracked wallet's new or increased position, checks it against the conviction gate, and delivers to email and Telegram. Realtime pushes have daily limits per wallet and per category, so one busy wallet or category cannot flood you, and alerts held back by these limits arrive in the daily digest.
Can I see the record of past alerts before subscribing?
Yes. Every position the feed has alerted is recorded at its first alert and listed with its grade on the receipts page when its market resolves, wins and losses alike. Positions still open are counted in the totals and sealed until then.
What is the conviction gate?
A move becomes an alert only at $1,000 or more, at a price between 10 and 90 cents, and at least 1.5 times that wallet's median position over the past 120 days. A wallet with fewer than five positions in that window has no median yet, so the $1,000 floor alone applies. Routine small positions stay out of the feed.

What graded data shows about copying wallets · Our review of Polyburg, the Telegram copy-trading bot with free alerts

Alerts are observations about public on-chain activity, provided for your own research on venues you independently choose. Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.

Free. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy.