Is that wallet’s record evidence, or luck?

A high win rate can still be luck

24 wins from 25 events at 90 cents average is a 96% win rate, and the verdict is still consistent with luck: those prices already predicted about 22.5 wins, so beating them by 1.5 proves little. That is why this page does not rank wallets by profit or win rate. Type a record with no address at the skill-or-luck calculator.

How the check works

Every graded position is compared with the price the wallet paid for it. A position entered at 30 cents that resolves in the wallet’s favor counts as a win the market priced at 30 percent, so the price itself sets the bar each position had to clear. The check sums wins and losses against those stated odds and asks how far the record sits from what its own prices predict. Correlated positions inside one event family count once under our independence rules, so a hundred legs of a single question read as one piece of evidence, and the confidence interval is sized by the number of independent resolved events.

What the checker covers

OVERROUND scores fills on Polymarket’s CTF Exchange and NegRisk markets, the classes that form graded prediction categories. Up or Down markets, the five minute crypto price series, are excluded by policy: an entire series collapses to a single event under our independence rules, and its outcomes track short horizon price noise rather than judgment.

The verdict also counts only events the wallet held on one side through resolution. Where a wallet held both sides of an event, or entered and exited before it resolved, the position is a trade rather than a forecast: a pair bought at 40 cents a side profits whichever way the event lands, and scoring that against a single entry price would credit arbitrage as accuracy. Those events stay in the graded history and out of the test. The full policy is on the methodology page.

Polymarket Perps positions are matched off-chain and never pass through the exchange contracts the pipeline reads, so they are not part of a wallet’s graded record. A wallet that trades mostly perps will show a thinner record here than its Polymarket activity suggests.

The three verdicts

• Distinguishable. The record’s excess wins clear the interval that chance produces at its entry prices, at 95% confidence. This describes the resolved record only.
• Consistent with luck. The excess wins sit inside the range chance produces. Profitable wallets land here regularly, especially on thin evidence.
• Insufficient evidence. Too few independent resolved events in the scored classes to run the test either way.

OVERROUND holds its own work to the same standard: every alert it has sent subscribers is graded in public on the receipts ledger, and the aggregate calibration numbers behind the method are on the statistics page. If the wallet you are checking is one you might mirror, the copy-trading guide covers what a record has to survive before it means anything.

What does the wallet checker do?

You paste a Polymarket wallet address and the checker tests that wallet's graded record against the prices it paid. Every resolved position is compared with its own entry price, so the question being tested is whether the record beat the odds the market stated at entry. The answer comes back as one of three verdicts with a 95% confidence interval, plus a coverage summary and an evidence range.

Is this a P&L or profit rank?

No. Raw profit and win rate reward bankroll and easy prices. This check asks whether the record beat the prices the wallet actually paid, over independent resolved events. A wallet can be profitable and still be consistent with luck.

What does “consistent with luck” mean?

It means the wallet's excess wins sit inside the range that chance alone produces at those entry prices. A record can be profitable and still be consistent with luck: favorable prices, a hot streak, or a few large positions can produce profit without demonstrated skill. The verdict reports what the evidence supports at 95% confidence, and more resolved events can move it either way.

Why are Up or Down markets excluded?

OVERROUND scores fills on Polymarket's CTF Exchange and NegRisk markets, the classes that form graded prediction categories. Up or Down markets, the five minute crypto price series, are excluded by policy: an entire series collapses to a single event under our independence rules, and its outcomes track short horizon price noise rather than judgment. The verdict also counts only events the wallet held on one side through resolution. An event where the wallet held both sides, or entered and exited, is a trade rather than a forecast, and scoring it against a single entry price would credit arbitrage as accuracy. The full policy is on the methodology page.

Are Polymarket Perps positions graded?

No. Polymarket Perps positions are matched off-chain and never pass through the exchange contracts the pipeline reads, so they are not part of a wallet's graded record. A wallet that trades mostly perps will show a thinner record here than its Polymarket activity suggests. The checker covers resolved CTF Exchange and NegRisk markets only.

Why does the checker report ranges instead of exact numbers?

The free checker reports buckets, like 100 to 1,000 independent resolved events, because the exact graded record is part of the subscription. The buckets are honest at their boundaries: a wallet reported at 100 to 1,000 events has at least 100 and fewer than 1,000, and the verdict itself is computed from the full underlying record before any bucketing.

What does a subscription add?

A subscription shows the wallet's skill score, its rank in every category it trades, its calibration diagram, and the full graded history behind the verdict, one row per independent resolved event. It also includes alerts within minutes when a wallet you follow makes a qualifying move. The checker's verdict stays free either way.