Polymarket guides, free tools, and comparisons
Everything here rests on the same graded dataset: every public Polymarket wallet scored against the prices it actually paid, over independent resolved events. The guides answer the common questions from that data, the tools run the test on any record, and the comparisons put this site next to its alternatives with sources a reader can follow.
Guides
- What is a good win rate on Polymarket?: The empirical answer from the graded wallet population: median win rates by evidence depth, what the entry prices already implied, and how many records survive a luck test.
- The most accurate Polymarket traders: Each category's top-graded forecaster, measured against the prices they actually paid rather than profit, refreshed as markets resolve.
- Copy trading: what the graded data shows: Before mirroring any wallet: what graded records say about P&L leaderboards, win rates, entry lag, and style risk.
Free tools
- Wallet checker: Paste any Polymarket wallet address and see whether its graded record beats its own entry prices or stays consistent with luck.
- Skill-or-luck calculator: Type a record (resolved events, wins, average entry price) and test whether it is distinguishable from luck. No wallet address, no signup, nothing stored.
Comparisons and reviews
- OVERROUND vs Arkham Prediction Market Elo: Both rank Polymarket traders by accuracy rather than profit; the four checkable differences, sourced from Arkham's own announcement.
- Arkham Elo: review and alternatives: What Arkham's rating measures, the limits its own announcement states, and the verified alternatives.
- Polyburg review: What $79 a month buys at the alert terminal, verified against its live pages, and the alternatives.
The primary sources behind every page
The numbers in these guides come from the same pipeline that serves the product: the scoring method is published in full, its out-of-time validation is on the research page, the aggregate calibration data is on the statistics page, and every alert the service has ever sent is graded in public on the receipts ledger, losses included.
Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
The Weekly Skill Report. Leaderboard changes, notable wallet moves, and every newly graded alert from the featured feed, the alerts subscribers receive. Wins and losses both, one email each Monday.
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