Arkham Prediction Market Elo: review and alternatives
Arkham added Elo-style performance ratings for Polymarket traders to its analytics platform in June 2026. The idea is close to this site’s, and the announcement is candid about its limits. Everything below about Arkham comes from its own published announcements, verified 2026-09-22. The live leaderboard stopped at a Cloudflare verification page when we checked that day, so nothing here describes its current standings.
What it is
A rating on Arkham’s platform that rises with correct predictions and rises more when the odds were long. The announcement explains that “correct predictions at lower odds will increase a traders Elo by more than correct predictions at higher odds.” The ratings live on Arkham Intel’s prediction-markets analytics page, and they reflect a framing this site shares: accuracy over raw profit. The announcement makes the contrast itself. The top trader by P&L at launch had a 52.9% win rate and an Elo of 1514, which the announcement says “is still in the top 7% of traders on Polymarket,” well below the #1 rating of 2389.
The limits, in Arkham’s own words
The announcement states that “ratings do not take bet sizing into account,” and its launch #1 was a trader of crypto up/down 5-minute markets at 64.3% across 2,644 bets. Both facts matter for how you read the board. A size-blind rating cannot distinguish a forecaster risking real capital from one grinding minimum bets, and 5-minute price series reward reflexes and structure rather than judgment about events. The announcement also publishes no graded record or out-of-time backtest behind the ratings, and Arkham’s announcements page lists no later post on them as of 2026-09-22. The announcement describes one rating per trader across all of Polymarket and mentions no per-category ratings.
The genuine alternatives, verified 2026-09-22
- OVERROUND (this site): category leaderboards that grade wallets against the prices they actually paid, alerts from the top-graded wallets, a public ledger grading every alerted position won or lost, losses included, and a pre-registered out-of-time validation of the scoring method. Free board and wallet checker; alerts from $19/month at the founding rate. It does not execute or copy trades.
- Polyburg (Free alerts; Pro $79/mo; copy-trading membership $30/mo or $120/yr plus a per-trade fee): Copy trading on Polymarket from a Telegram mini-app: a curated list of 200+ traders to mirror with one tap, auto-copy presets, and free Telegram alerts. Strength: Unlimited alerts on the free tier, a published fee formula, and a published Copier's pick ranking whose largest weight is what a trader's settled positions paid per share over cost. Gap: No graded record of past alerts was publicly readable on the date above.
- Unusual Whales Predictions (Free tier; $20/mo or $204/yr standalone, also bundled in the $50+ Unusual Whales plans): Potential-insider, whale-trade and smart-money tracking for Polymarket, built with Hashdive, whose Smart Score rates traders from -100 to 100 on consistency, risk-awareness and profitability. Strength: Category-specific trader scoring and several alert types (potential insider, contrarian whale, momentum) from a long-running options-flow brand. Gap: The product page describes no public graded record of what its alerts returned.
- Polymarket Analytics (Free tier; Premium $20/mo): Market and trader analytics: a leaderboard sortable by realised profit, win rate, volume or return on capital, wallet lookup with full position histories, a whale tracker, and copy trading through its PolyGun Telegram bot. Strength: Broad free coverage of markets and wallets. Gap: Its leaderboard sorts by profit, win rate, volume or return on capital, and the pages read describe no adjustment for sample size.
- Convexly (Free check; Watchlist $9/mo, Researcher $49/mo, Trader $499/mo; $19 one-time wallet read): A wallet analyzer whose Edge Score combines calibration, conviction and discipline against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort, with watchlists, email digests, and wallet-move alerts on its Trader plan. Strength: It pre-registers its tests on AsPredicted and publishes the failures, along with a signal ledger that shows its losses. Gap: Alerts within minutes of a wallet move start at the $499/mo Trader plan (lower tiers get daily recaps), and its track-record page labels its related-market signal feed “Track record immature”.
- Shadower ($99/mo or $990/yr, 3-day trial with no card): Copy-trading execution that mirrors chosen wallets' Polymarket trades in about two seconds through the official API, plus a trader leaderboard ranked by an Elo-style skill rating. Strength: Fast execution, a flat price with no per-trade fee, and a real trial. Gap: The Elo ignores bet size by design, and the full ranking past the top five needs a subscription.
Copy-trading execution, whale and insider surveillance, and free ratings all have honest use cases. The comparison OVERROUND invites is checkable: what each tool publishes about how its own output turned out, losses included.
The auditable version of the same idea
OVERROUND grades wallets against the prices they actually paid, ranks them on a separate board for each Polymarket category, and publishes the output: every alerted position, graded in public with losses included, plus a pre-registered validation of the method.
Read the full comparison →Or test the grading on any wallet with the free checker.
Get the next conviction alert, typically within minutes
Pro sends conviction alerts on Telegram and email when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, typically within minutes. Each wallet and each category has a daily limit, and alerts held back by these limits go into the daily digest. Pro also opens every skill score on the full leaderboard. The receipts ledger stays free.
Sources
- Arkham, “Introducing: Prediction Market Elo”, announcement of June 29, 2026 (the source of every Arkham statement quoted here), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Arkham announcements index (no later post on the Elo ratings is listed), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg pricing page (alert tiers, copy-bot membership), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg copy-trading page (the mini-app, presets, trader list), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg fee page (membership, invite month, preset exit fee, and the pointer to the canonical docs version), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg fee schedule, canonical docs version, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg docs, “How we rank: Copier's pick”, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg docs, Trader Discovery, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg docs overview (wallet custody, alerts on Telegram), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg preset performance page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg case-studies page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polyburg alert-history page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Unusual Predictions product page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Unusual Whales pricing, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polymarket Analytics home page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polymarket Analytics pricing, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Polymarket Analytics traders leaderboard, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Convexly home page, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Convexly pricing, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Convexly track record, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Convexly pre-registration manifest, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Convexly signal ledger (“CME proof ledger”), accessed 2026-09-22.
- Shadower home and pricing, accessed 2026-09-22.
- Shadower trader leaderboard, accessed 2026-09-22.
Competitor statements verified 2026-09-22; corrections welcome at hello@overround.pro. Revised 2026-09-22. The earlier version said the top trader by P&L held a mid-table rating, which the announcement never said, and the alternatives list carried out-of-date entries (see the correction log). Nothing here is financial advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.