69,189 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Crypto events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0xf1f0…58df, with 31 resolved events · +15.25¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 46.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Crypto score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 23 alerted positions on markets tagged Crypto have been graded: 18 won and 5 lost. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 78.3% where the prices implied 61.4%, a difference of +16.9 points, on 23 resolved positions, too few for a 95% interval. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Crypto receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Crypto markets here are price-target and event questions, such as whether Bitcoin reaches or dips to a stated price in a given month, whether an ETF is approved, or whether a protocol ships or a company IPOs. These resolve on observable outcomes at fixed dates.
One boundary matters when reading this board. Polymarket's Up or Down series are excluded from grading by policy, and so is every market whose Polymarket link reads “above-” or “below-” followed by a price. That covers the daily and hourly “Bitcoin above ___ on September 22?” ladders and longer-dated ones such as “Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?”. An entire Up or Down series collapses to a single event under the independence rules, and its outcomes track short-horizon price noise rather than judgment. The wallets ranked below earned their records on the crypto questions that remain, where an entry price states a testable probability.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Price-target questions with fixed deadlines, such as whether Bitcoin reaches or dips to a stated price in a given month, plus event markets on ETF decisions, exchange and protocol milestones, and crypto company outcomes. The Up or Down series trade on Polymarket too, as do markets whose link reads “above-” or “below-” followed by a price, such as the “Bitcoin above ___” ladders, and both are excluded from grading by policy.
Why are the Up or Down series excluded?
Under the independence rules an entire series collapses to a single event, so ten thousand five-minute trades carry roughly one event of evidence about judgment. Their outcomes also track short-horizon price noise, which a probability grade cannot meaningfully score. The full policy is on the methodology page.
Does a good crypto record here transfer to trading crypto itself?
The board measures one thing: whether a wallet's resolved predictions beat the probabilities it paid for them, on discrete questions. That is evidence about forecasting calibration on those questions, and it makes no claim about returns in spot or derivatives markets. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.