71,991 wallets hold a ranked Crypto record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0xf1f0…58df, with 33 independent resolved events · +18.7¢ per share vs the market baseline · 64% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Crypto markets here are price-threshold and event questions: whether Bitcoin or Ethereum finishes a week above a level, whether an ETF is approved, whether a protocol ships or a company IPOs. These resolve on observable outcomes at fixed dates.
One boundary matters when reading this board. Polymarket's five-minute Up or Down price series are excluded from grading by policy: an entire series collapses to a single event under the independence rules, and its outcomes track short-horizon price noise rather than judgment. The wallets ranked below earned their records on discrete crypto questions, where an entry price states a testable probability.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as a crypto market on Polymarket?
Price-threshold questions with fixed resolution dates, such as whether BTC finishes a month above a level, plus event markets on ETF decisions, exchange and protocol milestones, and crypto company outcomes. The five-minute Up or Down series trade on Polymarket too, and they are excluded from grading by policy.
Why are the five-minute Up or Down series excluded?
Under the independence rules an entire series collapses to a single event, so ten thousand five-minute trades carry roughly one event of evidence about judgment. Their outcomes also track short-horizon price noise, which a probability grade cannot meaningfully score. The full policy is on the methodology page.
Does a good crypto record here transfer to trading crypto itself?
The board measures one thing: whether a wallet's resolved predictions beat the probabilities it paid for them, on discrete questions. That is evidence about forecasting calibration on those questions, and it makes no claim about returns in spot or derivatives markets. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.