3,696 wallets hold a ranked Iran record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0x7a61…af24, with 28 independent resolved events · +23.6¢ per share vs the market baseline · 71% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
The Iran category concentrates the platform's geopolitical risk questions: airspace closures, blockades, sanctions decisions, leadership appearances, and military escalation timelines. Markets resolve on verifiable public events, often documented through official announcements and credible reporting.
Grading in this category rewards discrimination between adjacent scenarios. The same crisis spawns many linked markets with different dates and thresholds, and those correlated legs count once under the independence rules. A ranked record here means a wallet repeatedly priced volatile, news-driven questions better than the market did at entry, across separate episodes rather than one.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as an Iran market on Polymarket?
Questions about Iranian state actions and international responses: airspace and shipping closures, blockade and sanctions decisions, leadership events, and escalation questions with stated deadlines. Resolution follows documented public outcomes.
How can accuracy be measured on rare geopolitical events?
By the prices paid. A wallet buying a 20 cent position claims the market understates a one-in-five outcome, and across many resolved questions those claims can be scored against what happened. The board requires at least 20 independent resolved events, so single dramatic calls do not create a ranking.
Do these markets reflect inside information?
The board cannot see traders' sources, only their graded records. Where an edge concentrates in a few correlated events, the independence rules compress it toward one unit of evidence, and sustained accuracy across separate geopolitical episodes is what moves a wallet up this ranking.