105,854 wallets hold a ranked Politics record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0xf1f0…58df, with 302 independent resolved events · +23.4¢ per share vs the market baseline · 47% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Politics markets cover elections, appointments, legislation, and geopolitical decisions: who wins a race, whether a bill passes, whether an official is confirmed or removed. With the 2026 US midterms ahead, this category carries some of the platform's largest open interest and longest time horizons.
Long horizons change what a good record looks like. Political outcomes resolve slowly and often arrive in correlated clusters, where one election night settles dozens of markets at once. The grading counts each event family once, so a wallet that swept fifty markets on a single result holds one piece of independent evidence, and the ranking favors records built across many separate political questions.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as a politics market on Polymarket?
Election winners at every level, cabinet and judicial appointments, legislative outcomes, party control questions, and government decisions worldwide. Multi-candidate races run as negative-risk market families where the candidate legs are mutually exclusive.
How does the grading handle fifty markets that resolve on one election night?
Correlated markets inside one event family count as one independent event. A wallet holding the same thesis across dozens of linked races earns one unit of evidence when they settle together, which keeps a single lucky night from imitating a long record of judgment.
Do political insiders dominate this board?
The board reports graded accuracy from public on-chain records and stays silent on why a wallet wins. What it can show is whether a record kept beating its entry prices across independent questions, and how much of the record that evidence covers. Recent press coverage of prediction-market insider trading concerns exactly the wallets whose edge concentrates in a few correlated events, a pattern the independence rules surface rather than hide.