108,183 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Politics events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0xf1f0…58df, with 263 resolved events · +26.13¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 45.7% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Politics score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 10 alerted positions on markets tagged Politics have been graded: 4 won and 6 lost. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 40.0% where the prices implied 51.9%, a difference of −11.9 points, on 10 resolved positions, too few for a 95% interval. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Politics receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Politics markets cover elections, appointments, legislation, and geopolitical decisions, such as who wins a race, whether a bill passes, or whether an official is confirmed or removed. With the 2026 US midterms ahead, this category carries some of the platform's largest open interest and longest time horizons.
Long horizons change what a good record looks like. Political outcomes resolve slowly and often arrive in correlated clusters, where one election night settles dozens of markets at once. The candidate markets in one race count once when Polymarket lists them as one linked set, since only one candidate can win. Separate races each count, even when one national swing decides them all, so records built across many unrelated political questions carry more evidence than a sweep of one night.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Election winners at every level, cabinet and judicial appointments, legislative outcomes, party control questions, and government decisions worldwide. Multi-candidate races run as negative-risk market families where the candidate legs are mutually exclusive.
How does the grading handle fifty markets that resolve on one election night?
The candidate markets in one race are mutually exclusive and count as one event when Polymarket lists them as one linked set. Separate races each count, so a wallet holding one thesis across dozens of linked races collects dozens of correlated results in a single night.
Do political insiders dominate this board?
The board reports graded accuracy from public on-chain records and stays silent on why a wallet wins. What it can show is whether a record kept beating its entry prices across separate questions, and how much of the record that evidence covers. Recent press coverage of prediction-market insider trading concerns exactly the wallets whose edge concentrates in a few correlated events. Separate yes-or-no markets on one story each count here, so an edge of that kind can still produce a long graded record.