What is a good win rate on Polymarket?
There is no good win rate on Polymarket, and 640,363 graded wallets can show why. A win rate carries no information without the entry prices behind it. A wallet buying 90 cent favorites should win nine times in ten, so winning that often proves nothing. The question a record can answer is whether it beat the prices it paid. The numbers below cover every wallet with at least 20 independent resolved events in the scored classes, as of 2026-07-22.
The distribution, by evidence depth
| Resolved events | Wallets | Median win rate | Median price-implied | Median excess /100 | Beat their prices | Distinguishable from luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 99 events | 545,941 | 50.0% | 53.8% | -3.3 | 36% | 6% |
| 100 to 999 events | 86,134 | 51.9% | 49.9% | +1.3 | 61% | 27% |
| 1,000+ events | 8,288 | 55.5% | 51.8% | +1.0 | 78% | 45% |
Method in one line: each wallet’s resolved positions are graded against the price actually paid, correlated markets in one event family count once, and a record is distinguishable from luck when its excess wins clear the 95% interval chance produces at those prices. Full method on the methodology page.
The median casual wallet loses to its own prices
In the 20 to 99 event tier, the median wallet wins 50.0% of its events while its entry prices implied 53.8%. That is 3.3 wins per hundred short of what its own prices predicted. Only 36% of these wallets beat their prices at all, and 6% can demonstrate skill statistically. The 2026 SSRN study “Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets” found the same shape from account-level data: the median participant loses a little, and a small minority drives the accuracy. Our wallet-level data reproduces that result independently.
A 98% win rate can mean almost nothing
The 90th percentile win rate among the highest-volume wallets is 98.7%. Those are wallets that buy heavy favorites at 95 cents and up, thousands of times. They win almost every event, exactly as the prices predicted, and their excess over those prices is modest. Meanwhile the folk thresholds you will find elsewhere, 60% or 65% win rate as a mark of skill, sit comfortably inside what chance plus favorable prices produces. If someone quotes a win rate at you without the prices behind it, they have told you nothing yet.
Evidence depth separates provable skill from noise
The share of wallets whose records are statistically distinguishable from luck climbs from 6% at 20 to 99 events, to 27% at 100 to 999, to 45% at 1,000 or more. Deep records make real edges provable and lucky streaks impossible to sustain. This is also why the leaderboard gates on independent resolved events: a short hot run, however profitable, cannot carry the evidence a ranking claim needs.
Where does a specific record sit?
Paste any Polymarket wallet into the free checker and it runs this exact test: the record against its own entry prices, with a verdict and a 95% interval.
Check a wallet →The wallets that clear the bar, category by category, are on the skill leaderboard; the aggregate calibration behind the method is on the statistics page.
Population: every wallet with at least 20 independent resolved events in the scored classes (Polymarket’s CTF Exchange and NegRisk markets; Up or Down series are excluded by policy, and coverage boundaries are documented on the methodology page). Figures as of 2026-07-22, computed by the same pipeline that serves the public checker and cross-checked before publication. Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
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