The Polymarket leaderboard: profit ranks and the win rates behind them

How the official Polymarket leaderboard works

Polymarket publishes its leaderboard at polymarket.com/leaderboard, ranking wallets by profit and by trading volume. Entries appear under self-chosen display names, and as of 2026-09-21 the top of the all-time profit board runs into eight figures. It is a money list: a wallet climbs by making more profit, whatever mix of judgment, bankroll, and variance produced it. OVERROUND maintains a different board for a different question. The skill leaderboard ranks wallets category by category against the prices they paid, and each category’s #1 is free to read, with its score, calibration diagram and graded history in the category it leads.

What a profit rank measures

A profit rank compounds three things a careful reader wants separated: position size, price luck, and repeatable judgment. One oversized position that resolved well can outweigh years of small, disciplined trading, and a large bankroll can turn a thin edge, or no edge at all, into a headline number. The skilled-or-lucky guide walks through what the 2026 research found about how rarely profit survives grading against prices, and the statistical test that separates the two. A profit figure alone cannot say whether the record reflects anything repeatable.

Win rates on the leaderboard, read against prices

Every entry price already states a probability, so every win rate carries a built-in prediction of itself. A wallet buying 90 cent favorites should win about nine times in ten at those prices, and a 90% win rate built that way tells a reader what the market already priced. Across OVERROUND’s graded population, the median wallet performs close to what its own entry prices implied, and the share of wallets provably ahead of their own prices (at 95% confidence) rises with evidence depth while staying below half even among the deepest wallets. The full tier-by-tier distribution, from the same verification discipline as this page, is on the win-rate guide.

The ten biggest winners, graded as a group

Are the wallets at the top of the profit board also the most accurate? By policy, OVERROUND’s guides do not grade the accounts on Polymarket’s profit board one by one. The list is Polymarket’s own public list, though, so it can be graded as a group. From the 2026-09-21 verification run:

Of the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets on Polymarket, 4 clear OVERROUND's public evidence floor. Among those, the median skill-adjusted rank is outside the top 1,000. Ranking by profit and ranking by demonstrated accuracy answer different questions. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

In plain language, the public evidence floor means a wallet has at least 20 resolved events (each set of mutually exclusive outcomes counts once) in a category OVERROUND scores, with wallets we have reviewed by hand and found to be market makers or bots kept off, which is the bar for appearing on the public skill board at all. Skill-adjusted rank orders wallets by price-relative excess return after shrinking small samples toward category baselines (a short hot streak gets discounted toward the category average), the same computation behind the skill leaderboard. A wallet can also sit high on the profit board while trading mainly in market classes OVERROUND deliberately does not score, so missing the floor measures graded evidence in the scored classes, never overall competence. The same aggregate is tracked on the statistics page.

Brier scores and market calibration

A Brier score averages the squared gap between stated probabilities and what actually happened: 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is the score of always saying 50%, so informative forecasting sits below 0.25. On Polymarket the prices themselves are the forecasts. The quarterly calibration benchmark grades a year of resolved markets on exactly this basis, by horizon, price band, and category: prices tracked outcomes closely a day before resolution and sat noticeably further off a month out. The tables behind it are free to download and reuse with credit.

What is the Polymarket leaderboard?

Polymarket's official leaderboard at polymarket.com/leaderboard ranks wallets by profit and by trading volume, with entries appearing under self-chosen display names. It answers who made the most money. OVERROUND's skill leaderboard is a separate board that ranks wallets by graded accuracy against the prices they actually paid; each category's leader is free to read, with its score, calibration diagram and graded history in the category it leads.

Do top Polymarket traders have high win rates?

Many deep wallets carry very high raw win rates, and those records often perform about as their own entry prices predicted. A wallet buying 90 cent favorites should win about nine times in ten at those prices. A win rate becomes informative only when it is compared with the prices paid, which is what the graded win-rate distribution documents.

Are the biggest Polymarket winners also the most accurate traders?

The two rankings answer different questions. Of the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets on Polymarket, 4 clear OVERROUND's public evidence floor, and among those the median skill-adjusted rank is outside the top 1,000 (as of 2026-09-21). A wallet can also sit high on the profit board while trading mainly in market classes OVERROUND deliberately does not score, so missing the floor measures graded evidence in the scored classes, never overall competence. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

What is a good Brier score on Polymarket?

A Brier score is the average squared gap between stated probabilities and outcomes: 0 is perfect, and 0.25 is the score of always saying 50%, so informative forecasting sits below 0.25. A low score can also come from a diet of heavy favorites, so it only means something next to the prices behind it. On Polymarket the prices themselves are the forecasts, and the quarterly calibration benchmark publishes how they score by horizon, price band, and category.