Every alerted position, graded

Data notes

Prices

The At alert, +1h and +24h prices are the last trade at or before each horizon. The 5+ min price is the first trade at least five minutes after the alert, and in a thin market that trade can come hours later. All come from Polymarket’s public fills, before fees.

The 95% intervals

Differences are in percentage points (pts). An interval that includes zero means a difference that size is within what chance produces at those prices, and one entirely above zero means a larger difference than chance usually produces. Positions on the same market settle on one result, and the intervals count them that way. Two alerts on the same side of a market count like one bigger bet, and a pair on opposite sides adds no uncertainty, because exactly one of them wins. Separate markets count as independent. Markets tied to one event, such as a match and its single games, can settle in related ways, and the intervals do not allow for that.

Sealed rows and the ledger identity

Unresolved alerts are sealed. Each one is counted the moment it is flagged, and its full row publishes when the market resolves, with the original detection date frozen. Their details stay sealed until the market resolves because realtime alerts are the paid product. 1,346 alerted positions = 1,199 resolved (739 won, 460 lost) + 25 voided + 122 sealed.

Both sides alerted

A market alerted on both sides before the change on September 24, 2026 carries a row for each side, each graded on its own and tagged “both sides alerted”. Since the change, OVERROUND does not alert both sides of one market (the methodology gives the full rule).

Dates, sizes and sides

Dates carry day precision and position sizes are rounded. The date beside a won or lost grade is the day Polymarket closed the market. It is left off when it would fall in the future or before the alert’s detection day. Grades settle on the market’s recorded outcome, independent of that date. “Bought” and “Sold” describe the tracked wallet’s own action at detection.

Ledger and leaderboard

A category can appear in this ledger without appearing on the leaderboard. Alerts fire on live wallet moves, while the board lists only wallets whose records clear its public evidence floor of resolved events.

Method

Alert timing, gating, and grading are documented in the methodology. Validation work is pre-registered on the research page, and aggregate calibration and grading statistics are on the statistics page. Any wallet’s own record can be tested against its entry prices with the free wallet checker.