DATA

Data downloads

Every table OVERROUND publishes is available as a file you can open, chart, or load into a notebook, free and reusable with attribution. These are verbatim exports of the tables on the site, produced by the same verification run that gates the pages, so a download and a page can never disagree. Last updated 2026-07-24.

Polymarket calibration benchmark, 2026 Q3

Market prices against outcomes for every Polymarket market that resolved between 2025-07-01 and 2026-06-30, excluding voided and disputed markets, scored at four fixed distances before resolution. Method notes and the full discussion are on the benchmark page.

  • Horizon decay, constant universe (CSV, 4 rows): The 21,992 markets that had a traded price at all four horizons, scored at each. The only table in the set that reads as a decay curve, because the market population is held fixed across rows.
  • Horizon table, full per-horizon universes (CSV, 4 rows): Each horizon over every market that had a price at that distance. Comparable to how public accuracy dashboards count. Rows are different market sets, so they do not form a decay curve.
  • Calibration curves, 24 hours and 30 days (CSV, 20 rows): Stated price against resolved frequency by price decile, both horizons in one file with a horizon column.
  • Accuracy by category, 24 hours (CSV, 8 rows): Eight categories with market counts, stated price, resolved frequency, Brier score, and accuracy.

Graded alert ledger

Every alert OVERROUND has sent subscribers, with its grade after resolution, losses included. The human-readable ledger is on the receipts page; the same records are available as JSON at api.overround.pro/receipts. Unresolved alerts are sealed and publish in full at resolution, and voided markets are excluded from the record.

How to cite

  • One line, for a chart caption or footnote: Data: OVERROUND, Polymarket Calibration Benchmark 2026 Q3, overround.pro/benchmarks/polymarket-calibration-2026-q3 (CC BY 4.0).
  • License: CC BY 4.0. Republish, chart, and build on any of it, including commercially, with attribution to OVERROUND.
  • File URLs carry their edition and stay put, so a link in a published article keeps resolving after the next edition ships.
  • Method behind every number: the methodology page. Want a cut that is not here, by category, horizon, or period? Email hello@overround.pro and we will run it.

Computed from public on-chain Polymarket data by the same pipeline that serves the site, cross-checked before publication. Coverage boundaries, including the Up or Down series exclusion, are on the methodology page. Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.

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