Polymarket benchmarks
Each benchmark is computed from public on-chain data by the same pipeline that serves the product, with the method stated on every table. A new edition of the calibration benchmark is scheduled each quarter, and every edition stays online here. The tables are free to republish with credit (CC BY 4.0), and the core tables are downloadable as CSV from the data page.
Editions
- 2026 Q3: How accurate is Polymarket? Calibration and Brier scores, by horizon: Independent, horizon-controlled accuracy from a year of resolved markets: calibration curves, Brier scores, category splits, and why the public figures disagree.
Related
- Aggregate top-wallet calibration on the statistics page.
- Wallet-level grading on the free checker.
- The scoring method on the methodology page.
Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
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