The most accurate Polymarket traders, graded against their own prices
Most rankings of “top Polymarket traders” sort by profit, which mostly measures bankroll and luck. This page answers the accuracy question the way it has to be answered: against the prices each trader actually paid, across resolved events, category by category. The leaders below are each board’s public #1, computed from on-chain data published 2026-10-05 and refreshed as markets resolve.
Each category’s top-graded forecaster
| Category | Top forecaster | Graded record |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | 0x54a2…1d43 | 1,686 resolved events · +18.60¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 46.3% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Politics | 0xf1f0…58df | 263 resolved events · +26.13¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 45.7% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Crypto | 0xf1f0…58df | 31 resolved events · +15.25¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 46.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Esports | 0x8a92…8586 | 150 resolved events · +14.18¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 74.3% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Tennis | 0x94d4…d869 | 476 resolved events · +15.83¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 57.5% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Finance | 0x957f…99c8 | 112 resolved events · +15.30¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 49.7% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Iran | 0x7a61…af24 | 26 resolved events · +23.33¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 57.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Weather | 0xc31f…f04a | 101 resolved events · +33.01¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 83.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| AI | 0x4b72…38d5 | 42 resolved events · +19.92¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 75.0% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Awards | 0x957f…99c8 | 49 resolved events · +11.47¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 66.4% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Business | 0x7a61…af24 | 36 resolved events · +11.46¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 44.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
| Movies | 0x3577…6eff | 38 resolved events · +31.18¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 90.8% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound |
Each category links to its board, and each leader to its wallet page, where the full record behind the rank is free to read: the score, the calibration diagram and the graded event history in that category. Ranks below the #1 slot are part of the subscription.
Why this list disagrees with profit rankings
The disagreement is measurable. Our statistics page tracks the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets against this grading: 4 clear the public evidence floor, and among those the median skill-adjusted rank falls outside the top 1,000 (as of 2026-09-22). Meanwhile the win-rate distribution shows why raw win percentages cannot settle the question either. The 90th percentile win rate among wallets with 1,000 or more graded events is 99.9%, and the band’s median is 61.0% (both as of 2026-09-27). A record that close to perfect over that many events in practice only happens at extreme favorite prices, where winning was already close to certain. The Polymarket leaderboard guide walks the official profit board itself: what a profit rank measures, and how its ten biggest winners grade as a group.
Who is the most accurate trader on Polymarket?
It depends on the category. Accuracy is measured separately in each one, because a politics specialist and a tennis specialist are different claims. Each category's top-graded forecaster is listed on this page and free to read on the leaderboard, updated as markets resolve.
Is accuracy the same as profit?
No. Profit rewards bankroll, luck, and structural strategies like buying heavy favorites. Accuracy here means beating the prices actually paid across resolved events. Of the 10 largest all-time P&L wallets on Polymarket, 4 clear this site's public evidence floor at all, and among those the median skill-adjusted rank sits outside the top 1,000 (as of 2026-09-22, statistics page). Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
How is accuracy measured?
Every resolved position is graded against its own entry price, each set of mutually exclusive outcomes counts once, small samples shrink toward category baselines, and wallets we have reviewed by hand and found to be market makers are kept off the board. The methodology page describes how the scoring works, and the method carries a pre-registered out-of-time validation whose results were committed to publication before they existed.
Check any record against the same bar
The free checker runs this grading on any public wallet, and the receipts ledger applies it to this site’s own alerts, losses included.
Check a wallet →The full leaderboard · The receipts ledger · The methodology
Get the next conviction alert, typically within minutes
Pro sends conviction alerts on Telegram and email when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, typically within minutes. Each wallet and each category has a daily limit, and alerts held back by these limits go into the daily digest. Pro also opens every skill score on the full leaderboard. The receipts ledger stays free.
Rankings are statistical estimates about wallet records over the scored classes (Up or Down markets excluded by policy), never statements about persons. Nothing here is financial advice. Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
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