1,435 wallets hold a ranked AI record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0x957f…99c8, with 37 independent resolved events · +16.3¢ per share vs the market baseline · 95% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
AI markets price the industry's release calendar and milestones: whether a named model ships by a date, benchmark and capability claims, lab and company announcements. Resolution follows official releases and documented events.
Timelines are the graded skill. Release dates slip, announcements land early, and the market's price at entry states a probability about a specific deadline. Wallets ranked here have repeatedly judged those timelines better than the consensus across independent questions, through a period when the industry's pace made every deadline contested.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as an AI market on Polymarket?
Model release deadlines, capability and benchmark questions, and corporate events at AI labs. Markets resolve on official announcements or verifiable public evidence by the stated date.
How do deadline ladders grade?
A ladder of dates on the same release forms a correlated family that counts once. Separate questions about different models, labs, or capabilities are independent evidence, which is what a deep AI record is built from.
Does following AI news closely produce a ranked record?
Reading the news is the baseline the market price already reflects. The graded question is whether entries beat those prices across at least 20 independent resolved events, which requires judging announcement timing and likelihood better than a consensus that reads the same feeds.