1,321 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Movies events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x3577…6eff, with 38 resolved events · +31.18¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 90.8% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Movies score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 10 alerted positions on markets tagged Movies have been graded: 10 won and 0 lost. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 100.0% where the prices implied 69.7%, a difference of +30.3 points, on 10 resolved positions, too few for a 95% interval. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Movies receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Movies markets track what people watch and what platforms report: weekly Netflix top rankings, streaming milestones, reality show eliminations, and release outcomes. Resolution follows the published charts and broadcast results.
Weekly rankings give the category a steady resolution rhythm, and platform data is public enough that edges come from interpretation rather than access. Interpretation here means reading decay curves on a new release, competition in a genre week, and how a show's audience holds. The board below grades those reads against the prices paid, week after week.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Weekly streaming chart positions, viewership milestones, reality competition outcomes, and film release questions. Most resolve on published platform rankings or broadcast results, on a weekly cycle.
How is a chart week graded?
The titles competing to be the top US show in a given week are mutually exclusive and form one event. The runner-up spot, the global and movie lists, and each view-count threshold count separately, even though one chart release settles them all.
What separates skill from luck in streaming markets?
Sustained accuracy across many independent chart weeks and titles, beyond what entry prices implied. Public data narrows the information gap, so ranked records here mostly reflect better interpretation of release patterns and audience decay than the market consensus.