55,479 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Esports events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x8a92…8586, with 150 resolved events · +14.18¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 74.3% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Esports score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 214 alerted positions on markets tagged Esports have been graded: 117 won, 93 lost and 4 voided. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 55.7% where the prices implied 55.6%, a difference of +0.1 points. The 95% interval, −6.0 to +6.2, includes zero. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Esports receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
The 2026 League of Legends World Championship runs from October 15 to November 14, with the Play-In Stage in Los Angeles, the Swiss Stage and knockout rounds in Allen, Texas, and the final at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Esports markets settle on match and tournament results in Counter-Strike, Valorant, League of Legends, and Dota: best-of-three winners, event champions, and stage qualifications. Matches run daily across global circuits, so resolution is fast and frequent.
Team-strength modeling drives accuracy here. Rosters change, patches shift the meta, and public ratings lag both, which leaves room for informed traders to price matches better than the market. The board grades those entries against the prices paid, so a record of favorites wins no credit beyond what the odds already implied.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Match winners in titles like Counter-Strike and Valorant, usually best-of-three series, plus tournament champions and qualification questions. Markets resolve on official results.
What does a skilled esports record look like?
Sustained entries that beat their own prices across many independent matches, which usually reflects faster or better reads on roster changes, map pools, and patch effects than the market consensus. Match volume means the evidence accumulates quickly either way.
Are match markets and tournament futures graded together?
Both grade into the same category record. The teams in a tournament-winner market are mutually exclusive and count once. A match winner, its map winners, and its map-count line are separate markets, and each counts on its own.