250,634 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Sports events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x54a2…1d43, with 1,686 resolved events · +18.60¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 46.3% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Sports score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 46 alerted positions on markets tagged Sports have been graded: 20 won, 19 lost and 7 voided. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 51.3% where the prices implied 53.3%, a difference of −2.0 points. The 95% interval, −16.1 to +12.1, includes zero. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Sports receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Sports is Polymarket's deepest category: match winners, series and tournament outcomes, and season futures across soccer, basketball, football, baseball, tennis, and more. Markets resolve on final scores, so grading is objective and fast, and a busy bettor can accumulate hundreds of resolved events in a season.
Volume cuts both ways. Fast resolution builds evidence quickly, and it also means a profitable month can rest on a short favorite-heavy streak. The board below ranks each wallet against the prices it actually paid, so a record of 60 cent picks that wins 60% of the time grades as exactly what the market predicted, while sustained wins above the entry prices grade as excess accuracy.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Game and match winners, series outcomes, tournament and championship futures, and player or team propositions across major leagues and international competitions. Each market resolves on the official result. The teams in a futures market, such as who wins a championship, are mutually exclusive and count once when Polymarket lists them as one linked set. Each point-spread line on a game is a separate market and counts on its own.
Why does the sports board rank by skill instead of profit?
A P&L ranking rewards bankroll and favorable variance as much as judgment. This board compares each wallet's resolved wins with what its own entry prices implied, so a big profit built on 90 cent favorites reads as market-expected performance, and a record that keeps beating its prices across independent games reads as measured accuracy.
How many resolved events does a wallet need to appear here?
At least 20 resolved sports events. Below that, the confidence interval around any accuracy estimate spans most of the plausible range, so shorter records are excluded rather than ranked on noise.