1,477 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Business events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x7a61…af24, with 36 resolved events · +11.46¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 44.9% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Business score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 1 alerted position on markets tagged Business has been graded: 0 won and 1 lost. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 0.0% where the prices implied 90.0%, a difference of −90.0 points, on 1 resolved position, too few for a 95% interval. The position is listed, losses included, on the Business receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Business markets ask about corporate and economic events, such as whether an IPO prices this year, which company holds the largest market cap at month end, whether an underwriter leads a deal, or where a jobs print lands. Resolution follows filings, official statistics, and documented announcements.
The category rewards patience. Corporate events resolve on their own schedules, often quarters out, so records build slowly and the board's minimum of 20 resolved events filters harder here than in high-frequency categories. Wallets that clear it have priced a sustained run of separate corporate outcomes better than the market at entry.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
IPO and deal questions, market-cap and company-milestone races, executive changes, and scheduled economic prints like the unemployment rate. Markets resolve on filings, official data releases, or documented announcements.
Why are there fewer ranked wallets here than in sports or politics?
Business questions resolve less often, so fewer wallets reach 20 resolved events. The bar stays fixed across categories because a shorter record cannot support a statistically meaningful accuracy claim, however promising it looks.
Do macro data prints belong to business or finance?
Each market carries one category from its event's dominant tag, so a given print grades in exactly one place. Wherever it lands, the grading is identical: resolved outcome against entry price, with each set of mutually exclusive outcomes counted once.