Awards: Polymarket’s most calibrated forecasters

1,618 wallets hold a ranked Awards record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0xac16…4f44, with 34 independent resolved events · +15.0¢ per share vs the market baseline · 68% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →

SKILL LEADERBOARD

Who is actually accurate

The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →

Free preview.The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →

#▲	Forecaster	Events	Skill /share	Confidence	ROI	Hit (Wilson LB)	Realized
1	0xac16…4f44 ↗	34	+14.67	0.58	32.4%	50.8%	$223
2		80
3		24
4		58
5		35

Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.