1,730 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Awards events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x957f…99c8, with 49 resolved events · +11.47¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 66.4% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Awards score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
So far 3 alerted positions on markets tagged Awards have been graded: 2 won and 1 lost. Against the alert prices, the alerted side won 66.7% where the prices implied 73.5%, a difference of −6.8 points, on 3 resolved positions, too few for a 95% interval. Each position is listed, losses included, on the Awards receipts page. Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
Awards markets price nominations and wins across the Oscars, Emmys, SAG, DGA, Critics Choice, and their peers. They ask which performer takes a category, who gets nominated, and occasionally who hosts. Resolution follows the announced result.
The category runs seasonally, with dense clusters of correlated markets around each ceremony. The nominees for one award are mutually exclusive and count once under the independence rules. Each award is its own event, and so is each yes-or-no market on the night, such as whether a word is said during the broadcast. The graded history shows whether a record's events come from award winners or from broadcast word markets, and records that beat their prices across both over several seasons carry the most evidence.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Winner and nomination questions for film, television, and music awards, from the Oscars through guild and critics' ceremonies. Each market resolves on the official announcement.
How does grading handle one ceremony settling many markets?
The nominees for one award, such as Best Director, are mutually exclusive and count as one event. Each award is a separate event, and each word market on the broadcast counts on its own. A wallet that swept a ceremony's awards with one thesis about a front-runner holds one correlated result per award.
What information edge exists in awards markets?
Precursor ceremonies, guild voting patterns, and campaign dynamics are public but unevenly priced. The board grades award winners and broadcast word markets together, so a record can come mostly from either kind; the graded history lists each event, and the board reports the record without claiming to know the method.