2,824 wallets hold a ranked Weather record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0xc31f…f04a, with 46 independent resolved events · +17.5¢ per share vs the market baseline · 74% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Weather markets resolve daily: the high temperature in Chicago, London, Seoul, or Warsaw landing on or between stated values, measured at the official station. Nothing on the platform resolves more often or more objectively.
That makes this category the closest thing to a pure calibration test on Polymarket. Forecast models are public, outcomes arrive within a day, and a wallet can build hundreds of independent resolved events in a season. Records here show whether someone converts public forecast data into probabilities more accurately than the market's price, day after day.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as a weather market on Polymarket?
Daily temperature questions for named cities, usually whether the official high lands on a value or inside a range, plus storm and seasonal questions. Each city-day resolves from the designated station's published reading.
Why do weather specialists rank well on evidence depth?
Because the markets resolve every day, a consistent weather trader accumulates independent resolved events faster than any other category allows. Deep records shrink confidence intervals, so genuine edges become statistically distinguishable from luck quickly, and lucky streaks fail to survive.
Aren't weather outcomes just public forecasts?
The forecasts are public and so are the prices. The graded question is whether a wallet's entries beat those prices, which requires reading the same public models more accurately than the market consensus did. The temperature ladder for one city-day counts once under the independence rules.