652 wallets hold a ranked strike record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0x695c…10a1, with 48 independent resolved events · +21.8¢ per share vs the market baseline · 71% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
The strike category prices military action questions: whether a named state conducts a strike against another by a date, how many countries a power strikes in a year, whether a specific escalation occurs. Resolution follows documented military events.
These are low-probability, high-attention questions, and most resolve no. Grading against entry prices matters especially here: a wallet collecting 95 cent no positions performs exactly as the market predicted, while sustained accuracy on the contested middle prices, across separate escalation questions, is what moves a record up this board.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as a strike market on Polymarket?
Questions about state military actions with named actors and deadlines, from specific strike-by-date markets to annual counts of countries struck. Resolution follows documented, verifiable military events.
Doesn't buying no on unlikely strikes guarantee a good record?
It produces wins, and the grading prices them. A 95 cent no that resolves no earns what the market already implied, which is close to nothing in excess terms. Records rank on accuracy beyond entry prices, not on win counts.
How do correlated escalation markets grade?
Markets resolving on the same underlying action, such as a ladder of dates for one potential strike, count once as an event family. Separate actors and separate episodes provide the independent evidence a ranked record requires.