608 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Strike events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x695c…10a1, with 48 resolved events · +20.69¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 56.8% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Strike score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
Pro subscribers get alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, from every category or only the ones they choose, for $19 a month at the founding rate.
The strike category prices military action questions: whether a named state conducts a strike against another by a date, how many countries a power strikes in a year, whether a specific escalation occurs. Resolution follows documented military events.
These are low-probability, high-attention questions, and most resolve no. Grading against entry prices matters especially here. A wallet collecting 95 cent no positions performs exactly as the market predicted, while sustained accuracy on the contested middle prices, across separate escalation questions, is what moves a record up this board.
The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.
Questions about state military actions with named actors and deadlines, from specific strike-by-date markets to annual counts of countries struck. Resolution follows documented, verifiable military events.
Doesn't buying no on unlikely strikes guarantee a good record?
It produces wins, and the grading prices them. A 95 cent no that resolves no earns what the market already implied, which is close to nothing in excess terms. Records rank on accuracy beyond entry prices, not on win counts.
How do correlated escalation markets grade?
A ladder of dates for one potential strike is a set of separate yes-or-no markets, and each counts on its own, so one strike, or none, settles several graded events at once. Mutually exclusive sets, such as how many countries a power strikes in a month, count once. Separate actors and separate episodes provide the independent evidence.