865 wallets hold a ranked Trump record of at least 20 independent resolved events. The current #1 is 0x9dc7…8c0a, with 38 independent resolved events · +33.1¢ per share vs the market baseline · 63% hit rate. Its full record is free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →
The Trump category prices one public figure's statements and decisions: whether a specific word is said in a speech, what gets posted to Truth Social in a week, and policy or administration outcomes with stated deadlines. Resolution follows transcripts, posts, and documented actions.
Mention markets resolve fast and often, which builds evidence depth quickly for wallets that model speech patterns and news cycles well. The grading treats each speech or defined window as its own event, with word-ladder legs on one address counted as a single family, so ranked records reflect many separate judged occasions.
SKILL LEADERBOARD
Who is actually accurate
The top wallets in each category, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct resolved events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. How we score →
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Subscribe to reveal every forecaster, every score, and the full ranking.Subscribe for the full board →
Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.
What counts as a Trump market on Polymarket?
Mention markets on speeches and interviews, Truth Social posting questions, and administration or policy outcomes tied to deadlines. Resolution follows official transcripts, the posts themselves, or documented decisions.
How do mention markets grade?
Each speech or defined time window is one event, and multiple word markets on the same address form one correlated family counted once. Accuracy across many separate occasions is what accumulates as evidence.
Is this category about politics or entertainment?
The board does not classify intent. It grades resolved records against entry prices, and this category's mix of high-frequency mention markets and slower policy questions simply produces one of the platform's more active graded populations.