Trump: Polymarket’s top-ranked forecasters

Board data as of

793 wallets hold a record of at least 20 resolved Trump events, ranked by skill-adjusted accuracy across distinct events, so one correlated position can’t pass as a track record. The public board is free to read. The current #1 is 0x9dc7…8c0a, with 37 resolved events · +29.62¢ per share over the prices paid, after the sample-size adjustment · 46.1% hit rate at its Wilson lower bound. Its Trump score, calibration diagram and graded history are free to read; the complete ranking behind it is the subscription. Scores are statistical estimates over public on-chain data, and they describe wallet records rather than persons. How the scoring works →

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Sports250,634Politics108,183Crypto69,189Esports55,479Tennis34,253Finance8,111Iran4,070Weather3,032AI1,758Awards1,730Business1,477Movies1,321Culture849Music835
Free preview. The #1 forecaster’s identity and real numbers are shown. The rest are hidden, not blank. Pro sends alerts on Telegram and email, typically within minutes, when a tracked forecaster makes a move that clears the conviction gate, and shows every forecaster and score on the full ranking.Get the alerts and the full board →
ForecasterEvidenceAt the 5-minute price
10x9dc7…8c0a↗37+29.620.77Held up261.1%46.1%$355
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The 5-minute price is the price of the first trade on the same outcome at least five minutes after each scored fill, whichever side started it (called the follower’s price on the research page). Each record in a category is re-priced there and measured before fees against the price curve, so the favorite-longshot premium anyone could get at that price is taken out. Held up means the average sat above zero at 95% confidence over at least 20 events at that price. Didn’t hold up means an average of zero or below over at least 20 such events, with no confidence test. Anything else has too little evidence for a verdict yet, including fewer than 20 events or a positive average short of 95%. The test treats a wallet’s events as independent, and related events can make a record look stronger than it is. It does not show whether buying at that price made money, and it is not the price a copier pays. In a pre-registered run on 2026-09-28, the taker price (the first purchase at the asking price, or for a sale the first sale at the bid, five or more minutes after each fill) cost 0.33 cents a share more on average, counting any price move in between. At that price, before fees, wallet-categories whose earlier records held up came out 0.21 cents a share below the price curve on later events, though about a cent a share better than the rest. Among records the board ranks above its baseline, the ones that didn’t hold up were not shown to do worse later than the rest (a pre-registered test on 2026-09-29). Labels as of September 27, 2026. The scores beside them are rebuilt nightly. A research label, not a recommendation to buy, sell, copy, or hold. How it was tested (the research page)

Scores are statistical estimates based on public on-chain data and may be incomplete or wrong. They describe a wallet’s historical record, and they are not statements about any person’s character, honesty, or overall trading ability. Wallet owner? Request delisting or a correction: hello@overround.pro.

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The Trump category prices one public figure's statements and decisions, including whether a specific word is said in a speech, what gets posted to Truth Social in a week, and policy or administration outcomes with stated deadlines. Resolution follows transcripts, posts, and documented actions.

Mention markets resolve fast and often, so event counts build quickly here. Each word market is a separate yes-or-no question and counts on its own, so one speech can add many correlated events to a record. A record that beat its prices across many separate speeches says more about who models speech patterns and news cycles well.

The Weekly Skill Report. Each Monday, one free email counts the positions the alert feed first flagged last week and how many have since won or lost. It names the busiest categories and the ledger’s running total, and links to every graded row.

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What counts as a Trump market on Polymarket?

Mention markets on speeches and interviews, Truth Social posting questions, and administration or policy outcomes tied to deadlines. Resolution follows official transcripts, the posts themselves, or documented decisions.

How do mention markets grade?

Each word market is its own event. Polymarket lists each word on a speech as a separate yes-or-no market, so a wallet trading several words on one address holds several graded events that one transcript settles.

Is this category about politics or entertainment?

The board does not classify intent. It grades resolved records against entry prices, and this category's mix of high-frequency mention markets and slower policy questions simply produces one of the platform's more active graded populations.